Cavs at Nuggets on 2024-03-31
Feature Accuracy
Calibration Plot
What is a Calibration Plot?
A calibration plot shows how well a model's predicted probabilities match what actually happens in NBA games.
- Games as Bins: We group games into bins based on the model's predicted chances of a team winning (like 0-10%, 10-20%).
- Deciding Bins: To decide which games go into which bin, we look at the predicted win percentage for each game. For example, if the model says a team has a 15% chance to win, that game goes into the 10-20% bin.
- Accuracies: For each bin, we check how often the model's predictions were correct—this gives us the accuracy for that bin.
- Plot Points: Each point on the plot represents a bin. If the predictions match the actual results, the point is close to the diagonal line.
- Purpose: This helps us see if the model is too confident or not confident enough in predicting NBA game outcomes for moneyline bets.