Our match page includes a variety of ‘Cards’ designed to help users better understand where the true probability of a game may land. We've been leveraging this method to analyze early lines, giving us a clearer view of which lines open significantly far from where they’re likely to close. Example: Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, Nov 23, 2024.
Match Link: www.sharpsresearch.com/nba/match/0022400267/
Opening Line:
The opening lines indicate Houston as the heavy favorite—an assumption most would agree with. However, our analysis suggests that these lines may be misplaced, and there’s a strong chance they’ll shift over the next 24 hours.
Step 1: Look at the raw predictions.
The chart above highlights Houston as the clear favorite, but MGM's opening lines are notably outside the range predicted by both of our models.
Step 2: Who played stronger teams?
Over the last 10 games, which team faced tougher opponents?
Teams with stronger schedules naturally show lower stats compared to those facing weaker schedules. For instance, a team playing Boston or Toronto will likely post higher stats during the Toronto game.
In this example, Portland’s Opponent Elo (L10) indicates they’ve faced tougher teams than Houston. This means Portland’s predictive stats, if not adjusted for SOS, could appear weaker than they actually are.
Now, we have a team with Vegas lines that diverge significantly from our models and a stronger strength of schedule than their opponent.
Step 3: Look the lineup strength.
Looking at the last 10 games, Houston’s starting lineup slightly outperformed Portland’s:
70.2 vs. 70.1.
However, this difference is negligible, especially given Portland's tougher schedule.
Step 4: Finally, offensive statistics.
The chart below separates home and away performance. While Houston (Blue) shows stronger average shooting across the board, there’s significant overlap with Portland’s (Green) road performance.
We took Portland ML. The closing line was Portland +540, resulting in a +14.5% ROI.
BET EARLY LINES
SHARPS